[MCD] SWOMCD
Mesoscale Convective Discussions
mcd at goshenarc.org
Wed May 24 19:26:23 UTC 2006
ACUS11 KWNS 241923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241923
ILZ000-MOZ000-242100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...MO...IL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 385...
VALID 241923Z - 242100Z
CONTINUE WW. ADDITIONAL WW/S/ WILL BE NEEDED TO THE EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
AREA OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAIN
CLOSED LOW. THIS IS SUPPORTING ONGOING INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR THE QUINCY/HANNIBAL AREA.
ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY SURFACE-BASED JUST YET...BUT SHOULD
BECOME SO SHORTLY...WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AND FORCING ALONG
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. EMBEDDED WITHIN MOIST AIR MASS WITH MIXED
LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...WHICH HAS NOW SPREAD THROUGH MUCH
OF ILLINOIS...EVOLUTION OF GROWING/EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NOW
SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY. PORTIONS OF EVOLVING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BEGIN DEVELOPING EAST OF WW
385...INTO THE SPRINGFIELD/DECATUR AREAS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
AREAS NEAR/NORTHWEST OF ST. LOUIS BY 21Z. LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED
TORNADOES REMAIN MAIN THREAT NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE TOWARD 25/00Z.
..KERR.. 05/24/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...
39159252 40749006 40038781 38698787 38018918 38329101
38039260 38459350
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