[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed May 24 18:40:23 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 241837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241837 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-242000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0962
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN WI...ERN IA...NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241837Z - 242000Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR MORE WWS. 

NARROWING TONGUE OF MOISTURE EAST OF OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS
BECOMING FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL FAIRLY STEEP ALONG AN AXIS
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA...WHERE SURFACE
HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
INSTABILITY.  MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...
AND COULD...AT LEAST LOCALLY...APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...BUT MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE MAY BE INHIBITIVE OF
VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.  HOWEVER
...AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE DAKOTAS...
INCREASED MID/UPPER FORCING SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED STORMS BY 21-22Z...IF NOT BEFORE.  AS ACTIVITY
FORMS...MODERATELY SHEARED REGIME IN EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...
POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 05/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

45889286 46049131 45418971 44718931 43208926 41708967
41269031 41259193 41469243 42799163 44899147 