[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed May 24 19:26:23 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 241923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241923 
ILZ000-MOZ000-242100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MO...IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 385...

VALID 241923Z - 242100Z

CONTINUE WW.  ADDITIONAL WW/S/ WILL BE NEEDED TO THE EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

AREA OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAIN
CLOSED LOW.  THIS IS SUPPORTING ONGOING INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR THE QUINCY/HANNIBAL AREA. 
ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY SURFACE-BASED JUST YET...BUT SHOULD
BECOME SO SHORTLY...WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AND FORCING ALONG
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.  EMBEDDED WITHIN MOIST AIR MASS WITH MIXED
LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...WHICH HAS NOW SPREAD THROUGH MUCH
OF ILLINOIS...EVOLUTION OF GROWING/EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NOW
SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY.  PORTIONS OF EVOLVING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BEGIN DEVELOPING EAST OF WW
385...INTO THE SPRINGFIELD/DECATUR AREAS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
AREAS NEAR/NORTHWEST OF ST. LOUIS BY 21Z.  LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED
TORNADOES REMAIN MAIN THREAT NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE TOWARD 25/00Z.

..KERR.. 05/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

39159252 40749006 40038781 38698787 38018918 38329101
38039260 38459350 