[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Mar 21 01:30:32 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 210132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210131 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-210700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NEB/IA/NRN MO/WRN IL

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 210131Z - 210700Z

...HEAVIEST SNOW RATES THIS EVENING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ERN NEB/SRN
IA INTO WRN IL LATER THIS EVENING...

THE MOST INTENSE SNOW FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN OCCURRING
ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF KS AND MUCH OF NEB /ROUGHLY FROM GLD TO LNK/.
EXAMINATION OF 6HR-RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL EXTEND FROM CNTRL NEB INTO SRN IA. CLOSED UPPER
LOW NOW ACROSS WRN KS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS KS WITH GREATEST
VORTICITY ADVECTION FOCUSED ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA INTO IL BY 06Z.
UPPER FLOW IS COMPLICATED BY LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING
THROUGH ERN OK.

STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY OVER IA INTO IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
THIS SEEMS TO AGREE WITH RADAR TRENDS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM TOPEKA
INDICATE 2-3 DEGREES OF COOLING HAS TAKEN PLACE NEAR 700 MB...BUT
00Z SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD HAS A WARM INVERSION WITH +7C NEAR
850MB...SO PTYPE IS STILL PROBLEMATIC. ETA KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAVOR RAIN ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NRN MO...AND EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS FAR SOUTH AS THE KC METRO...IT WOULD APPEAR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. 

ACROSS IA AND WRN IL...DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY LIMIT PCPN REACHING
THE GROUND AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 20S. BUT...INCREASING LIFT AND A
DEEP SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING.

..TAYLOR.. 03/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

39849307 39679519 40139948 40929991 42289955 42229484
41879023 40119055 

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