[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Mar 21 00:31:16 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 210033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210032 
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-210200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0337
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN OK AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL/SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104...

VALID 210032Z - 210200Z

OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS WW
AREA...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DUSK.

INITIAL LINE OF TSTMS HAS MOVED NEWD OVER PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER
STABLE LAYER NE OF WARM FRONT. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS WRN AR...BUT ISOLATED
STRONG GUSTS AND HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS MAY OCCUR FOR ANOTHER 1-2
HOURS. MEANWHILE...HIGH-BASED BAND OF CONVECTION -- INCLUDING
INTERMITTENT TSTMS -- IS MOVING EWD 40-50 KT INTO WRN PORTIONS WW. 
ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED SEVERE GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS NW
TX AND SWRN/S-CENTRAL OK...OVERALL WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED. 
THIS MAY BE RELATED TO DIABATIC SFC COOLING...AND TO INGESTION OF
MORE STABLE INFLOW AIR ORIGINATING FROM INITIAL CONVECTION OVER SERN
OK.  RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW ADDITIONAL GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.

..EDWARDS.. 03/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

33809620 35589615 35569405 33789400 

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