[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Mar 20 02:52:03 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 200254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200254 
TXZ000-NMZ000-200500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0322
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0854 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN NM...TX TRANS-PECOS REGION
NWD THROUGH SOUTH PLAINS TO SWRN TX PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98...

VALID 200254Z - 200500Z

CONTINUE WW 98.  AREA E OF WW 98 WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW
AS WELL.

SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG WRN EDGE OF WW AS OF
0230Z...W OF ORIGINAL AND MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAT NOW IS
MOVING INTO TX.  THIS ACTIVITY IS FORMING ALONG COMBINED
DRYLINE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING EWD AGAIN
FROM ERN PORTIONS CHAVES/EDDY COUNTIES.  SEVERE CONCERN IS
TRANSITIONING MAINLY TO LARGE HAIL...NOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER IS
COOLING...AND ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER SFC AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO REGION FROM E.  PER COORD WITH
MAF...NUMEROUS REPORTS OF MRGLLY SEVERE HAIL WERE RECEIVED IN CNM
AREA AROUND 02Z.

OCCASIONAL HAIL IS POSSIBLE E OF WW ACROSS REMAINDER S PLAINS REGION
AND SRN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH 06Z.  RAOB DATA AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ELEVATED MUCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG ATTM ALONG LBB-MAF
LINE...DIMINISHING TO NEAR ZERO ALONG 100 W LONGITUDE...WITH 60-75
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  AS DEEP/COLD TROUGH ALOFT OVER GREAT BASIN AND
FOREGOING PLUME OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
EWD...GRADUAL INCREASE IN MUCAPE MAY OCCUR FROM W-E ACROSS REGION
AND OVER ANY GIVEN LOCALE.

..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

31490468 33690399 34530383 34920258 34790173 34190120
32970137 31820216 31180315 

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