[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Mar 20 07:24:14 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 200726
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200726 
LAZ000-TXZ000-200830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0325
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER TX COAST INCLUDING ADJACENT
COASTAL PLAINS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 99...

VALID 200726Z - 200830Z

NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TO THE E AND NE OF WW 99...PRIMARILY
FROM THE MID TX COAST REGION NEWD TO THE SABINE RIVER.

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW DEVELOPING TO THE NW OF CRP/SW
OF VCT IN THE COUNTY OF LIVE OAK.  THIS LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED NEWD INTO EAST CENTRAL TX.  RICH
MOISTURE S OF THIS BOUNDARY /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70/ COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LAPSE RATES ARE MAINTAINING A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
INDICATED THIS REGION IS CAPPED...LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING
ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT GIVEN CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SURFACE BASED
ACTIVITY.  06Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONVEY THIS SAME SCENARIO.  

STORMS AND NEW DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL TRACK EWD DURING THE EARLY MORNING WITH
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAINTAINING THIS COMPLEX. 
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
TRACKS NEWD ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WITH THE BOUNDARY ITSELF
WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

..PETERS.. 03/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

27819729 27969827 28549901 29959863 30849812 31509677
32069376 29629372 

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