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[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 192103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192102 
TXZ000-192300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0318
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192102Z - 192300Z

SURFACE-BASED TSTMS WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER PARTS OF SCNTRL TX THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO PERSISTS ACROSS TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS FAST MOVING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO EJECT NEWD OUT OF
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST. STRONGEST OF THESE
DISTURBANCES WAS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM. INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL AID LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS TX THROUGH THE EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE...WAVY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES FROM FAR WEST TX EWD ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND WAS REINFORCED IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS BY
CONVECTIVELY COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS TO THE NORTH. MOST
RECENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...NEAR CONCHO COUNTY... APPEARS ANCHORED
NEAR FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION WHERE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE WAS LIKELY
ENHANCING INFLOW INTO ELEVATED CONVECTIVE PLUME. STRONG LIFT ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF NEXT UPSTREAM PERTURBATION APPEARS TO NOW BE
PROMOTING RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PECOS AND CROCKETT COUNTIES.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TAPPING GREATER INSTABILITY AND MAY
BECOME SEVERE SHORTLY.

ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS LARGE SCALE FORCING CONTINUES TO ACT ON UNSTABLE AIR ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SHEAR AND FORCING WILL BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 03/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

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