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[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 191816
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191815 
TXZ000-192015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0316
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191815Z - 192015Z

TSTMS WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE TRANS PECOS TO
THE NWRN HILL COUNTRY OF WCNTRL TX. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS
OF THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TSTMS PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF WRN TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION REMAINS ELEVATED ATOP COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OCCURRING
TO THE NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WAS EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
AND WAS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS WEST TX/SRN NM ATTM. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
MID LEVEL FORCING... EXPECT LOW LEVEL ASCENT TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PARCELS WITHIN THIS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ORIGINATE FROM WARM AND VERY MOIST
AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ROTATION WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.

SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTRIBUTING TO PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS SO FAR GREATLY
INHIBITED SURFACE HEATING NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND CAPPING WILL
PROBABLY HOLD FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. SOME BREAKS IN THE
DENSE CI ARE STARTING TO APPEAR ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA AND MAY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

..CARBIN.. 03/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...

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