[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 191928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191928 
COZ000-NMZ000-192200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0317
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM AND SERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191928Z - 192200Z

CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING OVER PARTS OF NERN NM AND SERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO ABOUT 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
AGEOSTROPHIC ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...MODEST SURFACE HEATING IN THE WAKE OF HIGH LEVEL
BAROCLINIC CLOUD BAND...COUPLED WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...WERE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
LACK OF GREATER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 500
J/KG. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG FORCING AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD OFFSET THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED BUT
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY REACH
SEVERE LEVELS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

..CARBIN.. 03/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

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