[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Mar 19 23:27:47 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 192328
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192328 
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-200530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0319
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0528 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NEB/NRN KS/NE CO/SE WY/SRN SD

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 192328Z - 200530Z

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP/CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL NEB
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH HRLY SNOW RATES AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES PER
HOUR /PSBLY HIGHER IN CONVECTIVE BURSTS/. HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN A FEW HOURS ACROSS NE COLORADO...

LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS INDICATE PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITHIN STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN.
TSTMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING IN KS THIS AFTN AND ARE SPREADING NWD INTO
NEB WITH TSSN OBSERVED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO AT MCCOOK NEB.
18Z SOUNDING AT LAMONT OK SEEMS TO HAVE SAMPLED THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WELL...SO ISOLD LTG STRIKES WILL CONTINUE AND
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCE SNOW RATES THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS SCNTRL NEB SUGGEST STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES NEAR
AND MUCAPE RANGING FROM 100-300 J/KG.

LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
AFTER 00Z AS MAIN VORT MAX NOW OVER NW MEXICO APPROACHES. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING...LOW LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS MID LEVEL FRONTAL SFC WILL RESULT
IN A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY PCPN. HEAVIEST SNOWS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL FALL FROM SCNTRL SD THROUGH SRN/SERN PORTIONS OF NEB.
NCEP SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST 1 INCH/HOUR SNOW RATES ALONG
THIS AXIS...WHICH WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW WARM
INVERSION NOW IN PLACE ACROSS SW NEB/NE CO IS RESULTING IN FZRA AT
AKO AND IML. STRONG WAA MAY MAINTAIN THIS FOR A TIME...THUS REDUCING
OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SW NEB. ONCE COLUMN COOLS
SUFFICIENTLY...HEAVY SNOW WILL BE MAIN PTYPE ACROSS NE CO.

IMPRESSIVE DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING WITH VERY STRONG INFLOW NOTED
SE OF DEN. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NELY WITH TIME THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL FAVORABLY ENHANCE UPSLOPE SNOWS INVOF OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE. THANKS TO WFO LBF FOR COORD.

..TAYLOR.. 03/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

39239860 39320159 38820459 39380538 41060591 43030404
43890216 44089977 41259599 40109583 39369677 