[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 191612
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191612 
LAZ000-TXZ000-191745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0315
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TO NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 96...

VALID 191612Z - 191745Z

ISOLATED VIGOROUS STORMS...SOME WITH HAIL...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP WITHIN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN TX THROUGH
THIS MORNING. A NEW WATCH OVER THIS AREA DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT.

EXTENSIVE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN U.S. CONTINUES TO
PROMOTE A BROAD REGION OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS TX THIS
MORNING. LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES EJECTING NEWD FROM THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL
JET...CONTINUE TO AID MCS DEVELOPMENT FROM THE PECOS VALLEY TO THE
HILL COUNTRY. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WAS RESULTING IN THE CLUSTER OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY FROM CONCHO COUNTY TO CORYELL AND
BELL COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS ROOTED AROUND 800MB BASED ON LATEST
RUC SOUNDINGS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WAS LEADING TO PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IN A FEW OF THE STORMS. ELEVATED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES IN THE
WAKE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE PAST DAYS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
THE HAIL POTENTIAL FROM THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AS IT
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE MORNING.

ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM PERTURBATIONS EJECTING NEWD FROM THE LARGER
SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MODEST TO STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF TX THROUGH THE DAY. RESULTING STRONG MASS AND
MOISTURE FLUX...AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE INFLOW ACROSS THE DEEP
FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE REGION...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD
INTENSE TSTMS LATER TODAY.

..CARBIN.. 03/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

31229538 30879653 30569777 30499911 30579979 31050025
31579989 32069908 32969613 33139494 33039417 32389391
31549416 

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