[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Mar 19 10:46:07 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 191048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191047 
TXZ000-191215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0312
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 95...

VALID 191047Z - 191215Z

GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE CENTRAL TX CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF STRONGEST
STORMS...AT THIS TIME...NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  HAIL IS ALSO A
THREAT. 

10Z MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED GENERALLY WWD
FROM THE UPPER TX COAST TO AROUND DRT...WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM NNW OF DRT NEWD INTO CENTRAL TX /35 W TPL/ AND THEN
ENEWD TO EAST CENTRAL TX.  REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
THE SRN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL TX CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED
ALONG/N OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE COUNTIES OF EDWARDS
TO SAN SABA/LAMPASAS.  THIS ACTIVITY WAS TRACKING NEWD PARALLEL TO
THE TROUGH SUGGESTING A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ROOT NEAR/
CLOSE TO THE SURFACE FOR AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
OTHERWISE...THE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS WILL
PRIMARILY BE HAIL.

LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM DRT INDICATED A WEAKENING TREND IN THE
SLY LLJ.  THIS COMBINED WITH DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AS THE
TAIL END OF A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM
CENTRAL TX...WOULD SUGGEST DIMINISHING DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH TIME
ACROSS CENTRAL TX.  THUS...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...CLOSEST TO THE
INFLOW OF A RICHER AIR MASS.

..PETERS.. 03/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

29830139 30660136 31549998 31509836 31109736 30049843
29520073 

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