[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Mar 19 04:16:17 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 190415
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190415 
TXZ000-190615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0309
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX...E OF WW 94

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 190415Z - 190615Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL MAY SHIFT EWD FROM WW 94 AFTER ABOUT
530Z...BEFORE GRADUAL OVERALL WEAKENING TREND ENSUES.  ANOTHER WW
MAY BE REQUIRED.  ALSO...LOCALIZED RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR ARE
POSSIBLE.  

BOTH ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO
WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN TX...INDICATING GENERAL
DECREASE IN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT BETWEEN HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS
ALONG/E OF I-35.  HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BETWEEN E EDGE OF WW 94 AND I-35...GIVEN
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS.  MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED.  STRONGEST STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WILL BE ALONG SRN
PORTIONS OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...GIVEN 35-45 KT SWLY LLJ FCST. 
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE FRONTAL SFC CONTRIBUTES TO PW 1.25
INCHES BASED ON GPS DATA...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. 
MERGING AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL ENHANCE THREAT FROM HEAVY RAIN.

..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

29849898 30889912 32469959 33189961 33419895 33339797
32849730 32189707 30209760 29689844 29599888 

WWWW