[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Mar 19 02:56:15 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 190258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190258 
TXZ000-190500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0308
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0858 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 94...

VALID 190258Z - 190500Z

SFC MESOANALYSIS AS OF 245Z SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONT INTERSECTING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM INITIAL CONVECTION ABOUT 35 ESE FST...NEAR
I-10.  FRONT EXTENDS ESEWD ACROSS EDWARDS/CROCKETT COUNTIES TOWARD
SAT AREA.  CLUSTERS OF TSTMS BETWEEN SJT-DRT WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD
WRN/SRN PORTIONS TX HILL COUNTRY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER S OF FRONT HAS
BEGUN TO COOL DIABATICALLY...MODIFIED DRT RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PARCELS ROOTED VERY NEAR SFC...WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG...MINIMAL DOWNWARD INHIBITION FOR OUTFLOW GUSTS.  PRESENCE OF
AS MUCH AS 75 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
SUPERCELLS AND BOWS.  ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE/ROTATING STORMS --
SUCH AS APPARENT SUPERCELL IN MIDDLE OF VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 255Z
-- MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL...AND POTENTIAL FOR A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT INVOF FRONT.

INITIAL BAND OF TSTMS CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD APPROXIMATELY 35 KT
AWAY FROM MAF AREA...AFTER PRODUCING SUBSEVERE MEASURED GUSTS THERE.
 SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT
MOVES OVER PRONOUNCED STATIC STABILITY IN BOUNDARY LAYER N OF SFC
FRONT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL SUBSEVERE/MARGINALLY DAMAGING GUSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE FROM STRONGEST
EMBEDDED CELLS.  VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FARTHER NE ACROSS
ABI/SEP REGION...THOUGH WEAKER AND MORE ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY LIMIT
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE
E OF WW ACROSS THIS REGION.

..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

29790203 30350247 30910241 31870206 32740194 33080146
33270023 33419966 33159920 32879905 32089882 31509886
30379873 29749920 29350089 

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