[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Mar 18 19:28:05 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 181930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181930 
TXZ000-OKZ000-182130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0305
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND NCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 93...

VALID 181930Z - 182130Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL REMAIN A THREAT FROM THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS EAST TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS NCNTRL TX...A PARTICULARLY
PERSISTENT STORM HAS TRACKED FROM HILL COUNTY EWD TO NAVARRO COUNTY
AND WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF WW 93. THIS CELL
IS PART OF A LARGER COMPLEX OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HAIL ACROSS NERN TX THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FARTHER UPSTREAM...GENERALLY WEAK STORM UPDRAFTS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP WITHIN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WELL NORTH AND REMOVED FROM
CAPPED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SITUATED FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
NWD ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS DEPICTING EXTENSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF
PATTERN EVOLVING AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. BELT OF STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON
THE SERN FLANK OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS TX/OK THROUGH THE EVENING AND SHOULD ENHANCE DEEP
LAYER ASCENT AND SHEAR ATOP PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT. 
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WHERE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..CARBIN.. 03/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

31439588 32570216 34740252 33629583 

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