[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 181526
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181526 
TXZ000-OKZ000-181800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0304
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0926 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX/SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181526Z - 181800Z

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN TX AND SWRN OK THIS MORNING. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG
SLOPED/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. A LARGE MCS WAS ALSO EVIDENT IN RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS TAYLOR...CALLAHAN...COMANCHE...AND EASTLAND
COUNTIES IN NCNTRL TX. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE DFW METROPLEX BEFORE NOON CST.

UNLIKE YESTERDAY...WHEN ELEVATED STORMS WEAKENED THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AS LLJ DIMINISHED...ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SUSTAINED BY MORE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING. LATEST ENSEMBLE
MEAN FCST INDICATES THAT MASS INFLOW ON MODEST LLJ WILL PERSIST FROM
NWRN TX TO THE RED RIVER THROUGH THE DAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER
DIFFLUENCE STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM
AMA AND MAF DISPLAYED STEEP 3-6KM LAPSE RATES OF 7.6C IN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60KT. GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CONVECTION WITHIN STRENGTHENING WARM
CONVEYOR...COUPLED WITH UPSTREAM LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...THE CHANCE
FOR ELEVATED AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.

..CARBIN.. 03/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

31940044 32810148 34400240 34980179 35020021 34669891
33899675 32489615 31709702 

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