[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 182314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182313 
TXZ000-NMZ000-190115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0306
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W TX AND EXTREME SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182313Z - 190115Z

ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS AREA
FROM PECOS RIVER EWD AND ENEWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...LARGE HAIL BEING PRIMARY THREAT.  AREA IS BEING MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WW.

REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS AND LTG DATA SHOW BAND OF MIDLEVEL TSTMS
MOVING ENEWD 25-30 KT BETWEEN CNM-MRF...W OF FRONT AND DRYLINE. 
THIS REPRESENTS ZONE OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE UVV EJECTING NEWD FROM
BASE OF SYNOPTIC TROUGH.  SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE FROM NRN PORTIONS SAT AREA WNWWD...GENERALLY ALONG I-10
TO WITHIN ABOUT 10 S FST...THEN NWWD TOWARD GDP AREA.  LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY AT SFC IS EXPECTED NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...THOUGH ITS SLOPE ABOVE SFC MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE SHALLOW
FARTHER N OVER PERMIAN BASIN/CONCHO VALLEY REGION.  WEAK MESOLOW IS
EVIDENT INVOF FST.

AS MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVES INTO AREA...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO ENCOUNTER MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WAA...RICHER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ATOP FRONTAL LAYER.  ELEVATED MUCAPES
WILL INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT FROM MAF THROUGH SJT AREAS...REACHING
AROUND 1000 J/KG.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND VWP/PROFILER WINDS
SUGGEST 50-60 KT DEEP-LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEAR ROOTED AROUND 850 MB.

..EDWARDS.. 03/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

30700291 30930358 31720396 32040385 32470378 33030357
33270211 33030074 32460017 31769998 31030017 30320106
30520252 

WWWW