[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 181126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181126 
TXZ000-181200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW AND WEST CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181126Z - 181200Z

WW MAY BE NEEDED...IF STORM COVERAGE BEGINS TO INCREASE THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SW/W INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TX.

EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO NEAR DRT AND THEN INTO NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WSR-88D VAD DATA AT DRT INDICATED
SSELY LLJ HAD STRENGTHENED TO NEAR 55 KT DURING THE LAST HOUR
TRANSPORTING VERY MOIST AIR MASS NWD ATOP THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS LOCATED NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALREADY IN PLACE COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS AIDED IN A FEW INTENSIFYING STORMS FROM
PECOS COUNTY ENEWD TO BROWN COUNTY.

QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
THIS MORNING.  MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EVIDENT ACROSS THIS REGION
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN WAA REGIME AS HAS ALREADY BEEN INDICATED PER REGIONAL RADARS.
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE LLJ BEING STRONGEST THROUGH 12Z THEN
WEAKENING AS IT VEERS TO SSWLY.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.  DESPITE THESE FACTORS...
MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY/VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST...THOUGH LIKELY REMAINING ISOLATED...STORMS.

..PETERS.. 03/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

30480292 31400302 32850252 33060061 32489936 31479879
30509921 30010052 30210233 

WWWW