[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Mar 12 10:31:19 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 121032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121032 
KSZ000-OKZ000-121200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0432 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121032Z - 121200Z

POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

10Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN CO WITH AN
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS NRN OK INTO NRN AR. 
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND PRESSURES OVER
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IS RESULTING IN THE BACKING AND
INTENSIFICATION OF NOCTURNAL LLJ FROM OK INTO CNTRL AND WRN KS. 
THIS PROCESS IS EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING THE TRANSPORT OF A MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /I.E. AROUND 850 MB/ BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM.  THIS DESTABILIZATION /CURRENTLY THE
STRONGEST OVER S-CNTRL AND SERN KS WHERE MUCAPES ARE INCREASING TO
1000-1500 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN KS
THIS MORNING.

REGIONAL RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE COOLING CLOUD TOPS
AND AN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER N-CNTRL OK/S-CNTRL
KS...AND LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE RUC AND GFS SUGGEST
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
THROUGH 12Z.  GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 50-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS
WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 03/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

37049790 37629848 38269868 39199804 39519687 39149551
37939472 37289488 36989618 

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