[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Mar 12 09:37:47 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 120939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120939 
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-121115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO / NRN AR / SRN IL / SWRN IND / WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 68...

VALID 120939Z - 121115Z

THROUGH 11-12Z THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM APPROXIMATELY 20 NW POF TO S OF EVV. 
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST
STORMS.

AS OF 0925Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NERN OH SWWD INTO SRN MO WITH A
GENERAL ENEWD CELL MOTION.  WITHIN THE PAST HALF HOUR...TSTM OVER
SERN MO /WAYNE CO/ HAS INTENSIFIED WHILE MOVING 255/35-40 KTS. 
MESOANALYSIS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT OVER FAR SERN MO...FAR SRN IL INTO WRN KY REMAINS QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH MLCAPES OF 1000
J/KG...50-60 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 200-300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH.  

ELSEWHERE...MERGING OUTFLOWS HAVE RESULTED IN A CONSOLIDATED
TRAINING LINE OF TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WITH HOURLY RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES.  IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EXIST ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA /NAMELY
SWRN MO/ WHERE STRONG WAA IS ONGOING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO PRIMARY
LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED OVER OK AND N TX.

..MEAD.. 03/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

37309471 39008655 36838648 35069475 

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