[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 121254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121254 
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-121430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 68...

VALID 121254Z - 121430Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND PERHAPS
INTO CNTRL KY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WW.

AS OF 1245Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A FAIRLY LONG LIVED
INFLECTION OR BOWING PORTION OF ENE-WSW ORIENTED CONVECTIVE LINE
JUST S OF THE OH RIVER OVER WEBSTER...CRITTENDEN AND LIVINGSTON
COUNTIES IN WRN KY MOVING APPROXIMATELY 270/40 KTS.  THIS BOWING
FEATURE HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS EARLIER OVER FAR
SRN IL.  MODIFICATION OF 12Z BNA SOUNDING FOR PROXIMITY INFLOW AIR
MASS /I.E. BWG/ INDICATES A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SURFACE-BASED PARCELS WITH SBCAPES OF 800-1000 J/KG.  HOWEVER...THIS
SOUNDING AND LOCAL VWPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RATHER STRONG LOW AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS REGION WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-350 M2/S2 AND
0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KTS...RESPECTIVELY.

GIVEN THAT AIR MASS SHOULD FURTHER DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE MORNING
OWING TO INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING...IT APPEARS THAT SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP INTO
CNTRL KY.

..MEAD.. 03/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...

36708808 37178841 37818802 38188688 37788552 37388491
36868526 36628670 

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