[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Mar 11 23:45:39 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 112347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112346 
WIZ000-ILZ000-120115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0241
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0546 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 112346Z - 120115Z

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN WI OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH A PRIMARY HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL. WILL MONITOR
DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
IL EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERE LEFT MOVING SUPERCELL IN HENRY COUNTY IL /EAST
OF MOLINE/ AS OF 2345Z. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THIS CELL AND/OR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO BREACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF TORNADO
WATCH 63 ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/AMPLE
BUOYANCY WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WITH LATEST RUC
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL WI.

..GUYER.. 03/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

43158816 41748842 41758923 41988999 43078996 43728972
43878912 43738834 43728836 

WWWW