[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Mar 12 00:09:49 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 120011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120011 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-120215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0242
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NRN AR THROUGH SRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 62...

VALID 120011Z - 120215Z

LARGE HAIL REMAINS LIKELY WITH LINE OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS FROM
EXTREME NERN OK THROUGH SRN MO. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MOST LIKELY ZONE FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING REMAINS OVER SRN MO NEXT FEW HOURS. DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
SWD INTO AR APPEARS LESS CERTAIN. ANOTHER WW WILL LIKELY NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF SRN MO AND EXTREME NRN AR WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. 

EARLY THIS EVENING A FEW SUPERCELLS CONTINUE FROM SWRN THROUGH S
CNTRL MO. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN MO NEWD INTO THE
OH VALLEY THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND SPREAD
ENEWD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND MAINTAINS INFLUX OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR FROM THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 2 KM HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
STRONG. THIS ALONG WITH HIGHER THAN OPTIMUM LCL HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN
LIMITING FACTORS FOR MORE PROLIFIC TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN A WINDOW FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPING
ALONG CLOUDS STREETS ACROSS PARTS OF AR. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO DECREASE WITH SWD
EXTENT INTO AR DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND STRONGER CAP. NEVERTHELESS
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT.

..DIAL.. 03/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

35819484 37599355 37748973 36748989 

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