[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Mar 11 21:51:22 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 112152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112152 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-112315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 63...

VALID 112152Z - 112315Z

VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH #63 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z.

DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY OCCUR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON FROM ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL MO TO
NEAR COLD FRONT/WARM FRONT CONFLUENCE IN WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST IL.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS ROUGHLY LOCATED ALONG A COLUMBIA MO-QUINCY
IL-MACOMB IL AXIS AS OF 2145Z. SIMILAR TO CURRENT TRENDS...SHORT
TERM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ENE EXPANSION OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN MO AND WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL IL OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MEAN STORM MOTIONS TO THE NORTHEAST AT
40-45 MPH.

LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD OWING TO 1000-1500
J/KG MLCAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATE/STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN
COLUMBIA MO. ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL
MAINLY EXIST WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED AROUND TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND/OR IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF WARM FRONT ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL IL.

..GUYER.. 03/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...

38149232 39039237 39829204 41009078 41478980 41478869
41248791 40238812 39478847 38538931 38058987 38019072 

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