[MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD

Sat Mar 11 19:24:15 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 111925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111925 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-112100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0238
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN IL AND
EXTREME EASTERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111925Z - 112100Z

SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST/EASTERN
MO INTO EXTREME EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL IL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY BY 20Z.

OWING TO STEADY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX/INSOLATION...AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM FAR EASTERN IA INTO CENTRAL MO...AND WEST
OF EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN IL. DEEPENING CU
FIELD IS ALREADY EVIDENT ACROSS EASTERN MO ROUGHLY BETWEEN COLUMBIA
AND QUINCY IL...WHERE ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEGLIGIBLE
SURFACE BASED INHIBITION EXISTS.

GIVEN DEVELOPMENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY VIA 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE
AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLD TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED AND/OR
INTERACTS WITH EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS IL.

..GUYER.. 03/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

42039019 41698859 41178803 39848866 38469020 38449140
38659310 39859224 40659140 

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