[MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD

Sat Mar 11 11:52:47 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 111154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111153 
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-111330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0231
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0553 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO / SRN IL / SRN IND / WRN AND CNTRL KY / WRN
AND MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 60...61...

VALID 111153Z - 111330Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW/S 60 AND
61 THROUGH 13Z.  ADDITIONALLY...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE N AND E OF WW 61 OVER SRN IND INTO NRN KY.  

AS OF 1140Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FROM NEAR MVN EWD TO 30 W SDF...WITH A GENERAL ENEWD
MOTION OF 40-50 KTS.  RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND PLAN VIEW
PROFILER/VAD DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN A
ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION /I.E. AROUND 850 MB/
ALONG SWLY LLJ AXIS.  THIS MOISTENING BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM IS RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
FOR PARCELS BASED IN THIS MOISTENING LAYER WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG.  THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG OR JUST
N OF THE OH RIVER IN FAR SRN IND.  

SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE N AND E OF WW
61...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH NEWD EXTENT
SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY.

FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING OVER
SERN MO /NEAR CGI/ AND WRN TN /E OF MKL/.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE
CLOSELY TIED TO WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY.  HERE TOO...AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MUCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG/ WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.  THEREFORE...EXPECT THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OVER SRN IL...WRN KY...AND WRN
TN AS THESE STORMS MOVE NEWD.

..MEAD.. 03/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

35689264 38719112 38748745 38868581 38658495 37878462
37338578 34968755 34998973 35598943 

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