[MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD

Sat Mar 11 07:28:39 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 110730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110729 
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-110930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0227
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR / WRN TN / SERN MO / SRN IL / WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 110729Z - 110930Z

POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN 08-10Z.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A WW.

07Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED WARM FRONT RETREATING NWD THROUGH CNTRL
AR AND WRN TN WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S INTO LOWER
60S S OF THIS FEATURE. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING NEWD
THROUGH CNTRL/ERN OK WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT
CONTRIBUTING TO THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONGOING OVER ERN OK INTO
WRN AR.

SLY LLJ HAS ALSO INTENSIFIED AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE FROM THE
SABINE RIVER VALLEY NWD THROUGH AR INTO MO AND THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY...WITH STRONG WAA CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER SRN INTO SERN MO  /PER RECENT LIGHTNING
DATA/. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING
AROUND 850 MB WITHIN THIS WAA REGIME...BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 C/KM WHERE MUCAPES ARE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG.

IT APPEARS THAT THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
NEWD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 09-12Z ALONG NOSE OF
AFOREMENTIONED LLJ.  GIVEN THE POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
35-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 03/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

36029112 37209100 37779095 38519072 38799038 39048964
38898843 38238782 37048797 36128863 35688900 35569062 

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