[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Mar 11 09:08:08 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 110909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110908 
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-111045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0228
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND MIDDLE TN INTO WRN AND CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 110908Z - 111045Z

EWD EXPANSION OF ELEVATED TSTMS MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. 
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

AS OF 09Z...REGIONAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED TSTMS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NRN MS /S OF MEM/ PRESUMABLY ALONG SRN
FRINGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH AR.  ADDITIONAL...SHALLOWER CONVECTION
IS ALSO BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TO THE NE OVER PARTS OF WRN AND
MIDDLE TN INTO WRN AND CNTRL KY...LIKELY BEING DRIVEN MORE SO BY
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS.

RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT AMBIENT AIR MASS IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE /MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ ACROSS SRN HALF OF DISCUSSION
AREA WITH CONSIDERABLE DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING FARTHER TO THE N
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF KY.

LATEST TRENDS IN 11/06Z MODEL GUIDANCE DO SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED
TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
12Z.  GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 35-45 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 03/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

35058963 36248892 37478827 38008771 38148716 38278644
38008574 37178547 36288587 35318651 34818755 34568874 

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