[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Mar 11 09:32:59 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 110934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110934 
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-111100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0229
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 110934Z - 111100Z

POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 11/12Z.  THOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

AS OF 0920Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
TSTMS OVER SERN AND E-CNTRL MO INTO FAR SRN IL MOVING NE AT 45-55
KTS.  RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF RICHER 850 MB MOISTURE WHICH IS BEING
ADVECTED NNEWD ALONG LLJ AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE NWD OWING TO THIS INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN FARTHER TO S ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND MID S...IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE WARM FRONT. 

THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THEY MOVE OUT OF WW 60.  THESE STORMS
SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH NWD EXTEND AS AIR MASS BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE.

..MEAD.. 03/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

38559090 39079146 40019150 40549064 40618945 40518804
39898706 39038708 38478751 

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