[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Mar 11 05:04:49 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 110505
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110504 COR
NDZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-111000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0226
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL NEB...CNTRL SD AND FAR SE ND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 110504Z - 111000Z

CORRECTED TO PLACE TIME IN FIRST PARAGRAPH.

A NARROW CORRIDOR OF BANDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL TAKE SHAPE
FROM PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL NEB THROUGH CNTRL SD INTO FAR SE ND.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z.

SHORTWAVE IN VICINITY OF NERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NEWD
OVERNIGHT AND STRENGTHEN ON NOSE OF 130 KT JET ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NEAR MCK WILL TRACK NEWD TOWARDS FSD
BY 12Z. STRONG LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PROGGED TO COMMENCE TO THE NW OF THE LOW FROM CNTRL NEB INTO ERN SD.
RUC/NAM-ETA SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SHARP DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN 800
AND 700 MB WITH FULL SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC LAYER AROUND 600
MB. SUITE OF 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RIBBON OF
GREATER THAN 0.30 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENTS IN A 3 HR PERIOD. NAM-WRF
HAS BEST REPRESENTATION OF QPF THIS EVENING AND SUPPORTS AN INCREASE
IN QPF OVERNIGHT AS BATCH OF SNOWFALL OVER N-CNTRL NEB LIFTS INTO
CNTRL SD.

FURTHER EAST FROM AROUND 9V9 TO ABR...RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW AS WET-BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES COOL TO FREEZING WITH INCREASED
DYNAMICAL LIFTING OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD LIE
JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE WITH RATES OF 1 IN/HR LIKELY.

..GRAMS.. 03/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

43950140 45260019 46369876 46379716 44709882 43479976
42250086 42450219 