[MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD

Fri Mar 10 20:55:43 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 102057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102056 
TXZ000-102300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0223
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL THROUGH SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 102056Z - 102300Z

CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS E TX
DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS...IN FAVORABLY SHEARED AND INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING GUSTS.  AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE FROM ABOUT 25 W ALI...10 E SAT...40 W
ACT...40 SW FTW...LOSING IDENTITY FARTHER N WHERE AIR MASS TO ITS E
HAS NOT YET MOISTENED IN RETURN FLOW.  LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG
DRYLINE HAS LED TO CONCENTRATED CU/TCU FROM CORYELL COUNTY NWD TO
HOOD COUNTY.  ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION INITIALLY WOULD
BE HIGH-BASED WITH 20-30 DEG SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...BUT MOIST
ADVECTION WOULD INCREASE INFLOW-LAYER THETAE WITH TIME...AND
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FAVORABLY OVER E-CENTRAL/NE TX WITH TIME.

FARTHER SE TOWARD CLL/LFK AREA...LOW LEVEL FORCING IS WEAKER BUT SO
IS CAPPING...AND SFC DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO MID/UPPER 60S F. 
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE CINH HAS WEAKENED TO NEAR ZERO
ACROSS PORTIONS SE TX AROUND CLL/HOU/LFK AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
1. STRONG HEATING/MIXING OF INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
2. SLY FLOW IN 750-900 MB LAYER...CONTAINING COOLER THERMAL PROFILES
THAN WILL BE PRESENT IN SWLY TRAJECTORIES FCST TO MOVE OVER AREA BY
ABOUT 00Z.  FLOW ALOFT IS FCST TO VEER BY 00Z AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND VWP/PROFILER WINDS
OVER S-CENTRAL TX -- CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD TOWARD ARKLATEX REGION. 
THIS WILL INCREASE SBCINH THROUGH ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER
AIR NEWD OVER AREA.  PROFILER DATA INDICATE ABOUT 300 J/KG SRH IN
0-3 KM LAYER...AND 50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR.

..EDWARDS.. 03/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

30709787 31649776 32409759 32659726 32929686 32699589
32229571 31539539 31179488 30919417 30179450 29789535
30599655 

WWWW