[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Mar 11 04:11:53 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 110413
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110412 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-110545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0225
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN-CENTRAL AR/SWRN-SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 58...

VALID 110412Z - 110545Z

NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT TO THE E AND NE OF WW 58...
PRIMARILY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AR INTO SRN MO.

AT 04Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SERN
OK FROM BRYAN TO PITTSBURG COUNTIES...WITH STORMS EXTENDING NEWD TO
MAYES/DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NERN OK.  THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOCATED
OVER THE SRN PART OF WW 58 IS CLOSER TO THE INFLOW OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY.  THESE STORMS CONTINUED TO SHOW GREATER DEVIANT MOTION
TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN WIND /ENEWD AT 25-30 KT/ AS COMPARED TO THE
STORMS OVER NERN OK WHICH WERE TRACKING NEWD ALONG THE LLJ AT SPEEDS
CLOSE TO 60 KT.  THUS...STORMS THAT CONTINUE TO HAVE DEVIANT MOTION
MAY POSE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

THE STORMS OVER NERN OK HAVE WEAKENED AS THEY MOVED FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF UNSTABLE AIR.  HOWEVER...AIR
MASS OVER NERN OK INTO WRN AR AND EVENTUALLY SRN MO IS EXPECTED
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE NIGHT PER STRONG SSWLY LLJ TRANSLATING EWD
FROM ERN OK INTO AR/MO.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS GIVEN NEWD TRACK OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER WRN OK...AND WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF 70
KT MID LEVEL JET OVER MID MS VALLEY.  THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING
SUPERCELLS MAY REQUIRE A NEW WW OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AR
INTO MO AS STORMS DEVELOP/SPREAD NEWD.

..PETERS.. 03/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

33939757 36099651 36919523 38639422 38159196 35459210
34459345 33769528 33719648 

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