[MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD

Fri Mar 10 19:36:29 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 101938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101937 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-102130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0222
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL
PANHANDLE...EXTREME SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101937Z - 102130Z

SVR TSTM POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING ALONG GULF COASTAL PLAIN FROM
SERN LA TO WRN FL PANHANDLE/SWRN GA...AND SLOWLY SHIFTING/ EXPANDING
INLAND.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY MIDLEVEL CAPPING BUT VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
SOME PARTS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED WW THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM SRN SC WSWWD NEAR LINE FROM
MCN TO DHN...BLENDING WITH MARINE/SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WWD TOWARD MCB.
 COMBINED BOUNDARY DENOTES NRN EDGE OF RICHEST RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND MOST UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...AND IS MOVING SLOWLY INLAND
AT UP TO 10 KT ACROSS MOST OF THIS CORRIDOR.  LIFT APPEARS TO BE
WEAK ALONG THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...DIABATICALLY DRIVEN
DESTABILIZATION HAS REDUCED SBCIN TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
GULF COASTAL PLAIN ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS
AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.  VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUD ELEMENTS
THICKENING/DEEPENING OVER THIS REGION...AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ATTEMPTS TO OVERCOME WARM/STABLE LAYER AROUND 700 MB EVIDENT IN AVBL
MORNING RAOBS. WITH SFC DEW POINTS MID/UPPER 60S F...MLCAPES
500-1000 J/KG ARE AVAILABLE TO ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION THAT CAN
PENETRATE THAT STABLE LAYER...WHICH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN. 
ALSO...WEAK CB HAVE BEEN FORMING ALL DAY LONG IN FRONTAL SEGMENT NOW
LOCATED BETWEEN MOB-MCN...AND MAY INTENSIFY DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS
INFLOW LAYER IS OPTIMALLY HEATED.

0-1 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE ARE FAVORABLE WITH
100-200 J/KG SRH IN THAT LAYER OVER MUCH OF REGION...HOWEVER
PRONOUNCED FLOW WEAKNESSES IN 2-4 KM LAYER LIMIT DEEPER LAYER SRH. 
MRGL 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KT ALSO ARE EVIDENT.

..EDWARDS.. 03/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

31338477 30408578 30338791 30339057 30609241 30949297
31439284 31859272 32349191 31909022 31638849 31578749
31888602 31908513 31838481 31508461 

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