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[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 092244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092244 
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-092345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0444 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MO/NERN AR...FAR WRN KY/SRN IL AND WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 092244Z - 092345Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARDS
THE MS VALLEY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 23Z.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF A SQUALL
LINE FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION. RECENT TRACKING OF THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CIRRUS SHEATH INDICATES NEWD MOVEMENT OF 65-70 KTS. THIS SPEED
HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HRS...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER AR.
MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WAS MOVING AROUND 40-45 KTS.
THUS...ALONG WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION AND THREAT FOR SVR STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER NERN AR/SERN MO INTO FAR WRN KY/WRN TN
AND SRN IL. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DMGG
WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH/ WAS BEGINNING
TO REDEVELOP /PER BLM PROFILER/ OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THUS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..CROSBIE.. 03/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...

38278852 37848779 36188845 35288898 35088961 35339101
35909144 38099004 

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