[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Mar 9 21:30:37 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 092132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092132 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-092300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN INDIANA...W-CENTRAL THROUGH N-CENTRAL
KY...WRN/MID TN...SWRN OH.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 52...

VALID 092132Z - 092300Z

LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW PATTERNS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NEWD ACROSS WW AREA...AND THEN UP OH VALLEY TOWARD
REMAINDER SERN INDIANA...N-CENTRAL KY AND SWRN OH.  LINE HAS
PRODUCED DAMAGING GUSTS AND FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS IN PAST 2-3 HOURS. 
WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND THIS CONVECTION.  TN PORTION OF LINE WILL
MOVE INTO NRN SECTION OF SVR WW 53 BEFORE WW 52 EXPIRES.

MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE BASE OF EFFECTIVE LIFTED LAYER WILL
REMAIN ON OR BARELY ABOVE SFC FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...MAINTAINING AT
LEAST MRGL TORNADO RISK GIVEN PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AND ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.  NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY UNSTABLE
MEAN LAPSE RATES WILL MITIGATE BUOYANCY...KEEPING MUCAPES BELOW 500
J/KG IN MOST AREAS.  ONCE ACTIVITY MOVES E AND NE OF WW
AREA...OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH WEAKENING THETAE IN NEAR-SFC LAYER...AS ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...OCNL WIND
DAMAGE MAY PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS FAR NE AS SWRN OH.

..EDWARDS.. 03/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

40078583 38848661 37998705 36628836 36068848 35618848
35218818 35228770 35888711 36688657 36678509 39088414
39978480 

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