[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Mar 9 21:50:04 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 092151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092151 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-092245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/SRN MS...SERN LA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 50...

VALID 092151Z - 092245Z

WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY BAND OF SEVERE TSTMS. ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...AS IT MOVES NEWD
ACROSS ERN/SRN MS AND PORTIONS SERN LA.  TORNADO THREAT STILL
REMAINS BUT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME OVER NRN PORTION OF
LINE AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THETAE AIR
MASS...AND INTO SEVERE WW 53.

BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER INFLOW SECTOR FARTHER S -- ACROSS SERN MS
AND SERN LA -- IS EXPECTED TO VEER SOMEWHAT AS REGION OF STRONGEST
PRESSURE FALLS SHIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM AREA.  THIS MAY REDUCE
CONVERGENCE AND LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF SRN PORTION OF
CONVECTIVE BAND.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE...HOWEVER...WITH 0-1 KM SRH 400-600 J/KG AND 0-6 KM AGL
SHEARS OF 60-80 KT.  MLCAPES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AFTER PEAK SFC HEATING...BUT LIFTED
PARCELS SHOULD REMAIN SFC BASED FOR REMAINDER OF DURATION OF WW.

..EDWARDS.. 03/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...

30839135 31808971 33438873 34948793 34788763 33098830
32048864 30818856 29738982 29249124 29599210 

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