[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Mar 9 21:04:55 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 092106
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092106 
MOZ000-ARZ000-092230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL AR AND SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51...

VALID 092106Z - 092230Z

THREAT FOR SVR WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST ACROSS NCENTRAL AR IN THE NEXT
2 HOURS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 22Z
FOR THE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CLUSTER /NERN AR/ AND OUTSIDE OF WW
51.

LATEST RAD/SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NWRN AR. SVR
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH STORMS IN THE
CLUSTER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. WV IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS ACTIVITY
WAS ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED VORT MAX. GIVEN THE MODEST
INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG PER MODEL SOUNDING DATA/
SOMEWHAT WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PROXIMITY TO THE HE VORT MAX HAS
AIDED IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS CLUSTER. FURTHER
SOUTH...CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOP OVER THE SERN PORTION OF WW 51
INTO CENTRAL AR...BUT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /70-90 KTS/ WILL TEND
TO LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY GIVEN ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY. FURTHER
NORTH IN SCENTRAL/CENTRAL MO WEAKER INSTABILITY /MUCAPES FROM
500-750 J/KG/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SVR THREAT.

GIVEN OVERALL LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF VORT MAX INTO
NCENTRAL AR...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT.
HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL STILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL WITH ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.

..CROSBIE.. 03/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

38369084 38439256 37359304 35579341 35149317 34729293
35279257 36819172 

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