[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 081954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081953 
OKZ000-TXZ000-082200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL TX INTO SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081953Z - 082200Z

WE ARE MONITORING THE DRYLINE FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
THIS AFTERNOON. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 50S E OF THE
DRYLINE. 18Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS A RELATIVELY DEEP AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS NEAR 10.5 G/KG AND 850 DEWPOINT OF
11.9 C...HOWEVER CAPPED. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXIST FARTHER WEST WITH
LITTLE SURFACE BASED AND MIXED LAYER CIN REMAINING.

AN EXPANSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD HAS FORMED IN ADVANCE OF UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL WITH A STRONG
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM THE MCD AREA NWWD. IN ADDITION...AREA WIND
PROFILERS INDICATE LOW LEVEL WINDS / 850 MB / BEGINNING TO BACK
WHICH WILL HELP TRANSPORT RICHER MOISTURE NWWD BENEATH INCREASINGLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST 18Z NAM AS WELL AS 18Z RUC
MODELS BOTH PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX BETWEEN
21-00Z. GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS AS WELL AS INCREASING
HELICITY LATE...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.
TORNADO THREAT WOULD INCREASE LATER IN THE EVENING WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND CONTINUED STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES ALOFT WITH
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY/ACCELERATION.

..JEWELL.. 03/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

35109698 34489721 32209849 31839903 31229984 31100023
31630057 32619999 33629904 34759841 35039824 35519749