[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Mar 8 21:12:29 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 082111
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082111 
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-082245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN KS...W-CENTRAL/NWRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 39...

VALID 082111Z - 082245Z

SEVERAL DEEP CONVECTIVE TOWERS ARE EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY ALONG AND
JUST N OF SFC WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NWD ACROSS STJ
AREA...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS EXTREME NERN KS AND NWRN MO.
FOR GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL...ACTIVITY MUST REMAIN IN WARM
FRONTAL ZONE LONG ENOUGH TO MATURE WITH SFC-BASED INFLOW...WITHOUT
MOVING TOO FAR OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS NEAR
IA/MO LINE.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD
ACROSS AREA BETWEEN MHK-TOP-FNB.  DRYLINE INTERSECTS WARM FRONT JUST
E OF SFC LOW BETWEEN TOP-STJ AS OF 21Z...AND MAY MOVE EWD AS FAR AS
MO RIVER IN NEXT 1- 2HOURS.  MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW WEAK CINH -- 25 J/KG OR LESS -- FOR 100 MB DEEP MEAN-MIXED
LAYER ASCENT...MAINLY NEAR AND N OF I-70.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ON BOTH SIDES OF WARM FRONT...BUT WITH
MORE STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NEAR AND JUST N OF FRONT WHERE FLOW
IS BACKED AT SFC.

SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG DRYLINE OVER WRN PORTION
OF WW...HOWEVER PROBABILITIES MAY BE DIMINISHING WITH COVERAGE OF
DEVELOPMENT LIMITED S OF WARM FRONT.  STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS IN
THIS REGION SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND N OF SFC WARM FRONT HELPING TO
MAINTAIN BACKED FLOW AND FAVORABLE SHEAR THERE BUT KEEPING FLOW
SOMEWHAT VEERED AND REDUCING DRYLINE CONVERGENCE FARTHER S.  IN
ADDITION...THICKENING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM
SW IS SLOWING DIABATIC HEATING AND MAY ALSO BE RESTRICTING
SOLENOIDAL ASCENT INVOF DRYLINE.  W EDGE OF HIGH CLOUD DECK SHOULD
NOT MOVE E OF WW UNTIL AFTER DARK...THEREFORE SFC TEMPS IN MOIST
SECTOR MAY BE PEAKING.

..EDWARDS.. 03/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

36999433 36979628 38109559 39189509 39669524 40029525
40189417 40099301 39299318 