[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 081825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081825 
KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-082030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN OK...WRN/NRN AR...EXTREME SERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081825Z - 082030Z

TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY MAY INCREASE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS NRN/WRN AR...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MOVING NEWD FROM
SERN OK.  MAIN THREAT THROUGH 21Z SHOULD BE HAIL.  EXISTING ACTIVITY
OVER NERN AR SHOULD MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS SERN MO AND MAY PRODUCE
HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS BEFORE WEAKENING.

MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-1500
J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...SUPPORTED BY STRONG WAA IN 800-850 MB
LAYER WHERE ACTIVITY IS ROOTED ATTM.  50-70 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL
ENHANCE SHEAR THROUGH CAPE BEARING LAYER...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR
FURTHER ORGANIZATION AND HAIL PRODUCTION.  ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING WILL
BE SLOW OVER THIS REGION BECAUSE OF THICK CLOUD COVER...COMBINATION
OF GRADUAL DIABATIC WARMING AND SFC WAA MAY RESULT IN EFFECTIVE
LIFTED LAYER EXTENDING DOWN TO SFC ONCE TEMPS REACH MID 70S F...MOST
PROBABLE FROM ABOUT 21Z ONWARD.  WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY MAY
DEVELOP FROM SERN OK ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AR IN RESPONSE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING S OF MAIN PRECIP AREA.  ALTHOUGH MODELS
INDICATE CAPPING WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR SFC PARCELS...SUCH HEATING
AND POTENTIAL LIFT COULD INTRODUCE SOME SFC-BASED SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...A SITUATION THAT WILL WARRANT
ADDITIONAL MONITORING.

..EDWARDS.. 03/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

34859238 34209526 35909425 36449144 37308958 36428952
35299081 34999182