[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Mar 8 17:42:13 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 081741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081741 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-082015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CST WED MAR 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN KS...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081741Z - 082015Z

POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE DURING
NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS NERN KS/NWRN MO. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WW.

SFC MESOANALYSES OVER PAST FEW HOURS SHOW WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD
ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO...E THRU ESE SFC LOW. AT 17Z...SHARPLY
DEFINED WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM SFC LOW NEAR MHK...ESEWD ACROSS
WRN/SRN PORTIONS KC METRO AREA...THEN CURVING SWD OVER WRN OZARKS
REGION.  EXPECT SFC CYCLONE TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT MORE AND MOVE NEWD
TOWARD STJ REGION THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD OVER MO VALLEY BETWEEN FNB-MCI.  DRYLINE -- ANALYZED AT
17Z FROM POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY KS SWWD TO BETWEEN END-PNC -- SHOULD
MOVE EWD IN STEP WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF SFC LOW...AND WILL FORM WRN
BOUND FOR SEVERE THREAT.

AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT...AND E OF DRYLINE...IS BECOMING
FAVORABLY UNSTABLE...WITH VIS IMAGERY AND OBS SHOWING CLEARING S OF
WARM FRONT.  CINH WEAKENS RAPIDLY AS SFC TEMPS HEAT INTO MID 70S
WITH 55-60 DEG F DEW POINTS...PER MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC/ETA
SOUNDINGS.  THIS MAY FOSTER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NEXT 2-3
HOURS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ENHANCEMENT OF CONVERGENCE ALONG
DRYLINE/WARM FRONT NEAR DEEPENING LOW. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
REMAIN MAXIMIZED INVOF THIS FRONT AS WELL...PER LATEST VWP/PROFILER
TRENDS.  ALONG WARM FRONT AND E OF SFC LOW...MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG
ARE POSSIBLE WITH 0-1 KM SRH 200-300 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS
NEAR 60 KT...SUPPORTING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IN ANY TSTMS THAT
DEVELOP.

..EDWARDS.. 03/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

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