[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Mar 8 03:23:04 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 080323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080323 
MOZ000-KSZ000-080530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0923 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS INTO NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 38...

VALID 080323Z - 080530Z

CONTINUE WW 38.  TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW TO THE EAST OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO
AREA.

INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW ONGOING NEAR THE TOPEKA/
ST. JOSEPH/KANSAS CITY AREAS...WHERE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED ON NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE...IN WAKE OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...AIDED BY MOIST INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION
...WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS
WHICH WILL BE BASED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE FRONTAL INVERSION

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH 06Z AND
BEYOND...IN LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT REGIME DOWNSTREAM...BECOMING QUASI
STATIONARY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR ACROSS MISSOURI. 
DESTABILIZATION COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL
THREAT.  OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN TRAINING CONVECTION
COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME A PROBLEM.

..KERR.. 03/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

38979661 39479597 39779480 40039302 39839170 39219103
38829105 38599157 38469321 38019530 38259647 