[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Mar 8 03:49:49 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 080349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080348 
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-080515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0948 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/SRN KS/SW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 38...

VALID 080348Z - 080515Z

SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
MID-LEVEL COOLING IN WAKE OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  INFLUENCE
OF UPPER JET STREAK TOPPING CREST OF SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT STRONGER FORCING APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SHIFTING
EAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WW 38...EAST OF THE
PONCA CITY AREA BY 06Z...AND EAST OF BARTLESVILLE INTO THE JOPLIN
AREA BY 09Z.  VEERING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN INFLOW
OF MOIST...POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR...IN ENVIRONMENT WITH SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  ONGOING ACTIVITY MAY BE BASED NEAR THE
SURFACE...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARY
THREAT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..KERR.. 03/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

36579813 37179745 37559636 37799510 37249452 36769483
36549553 36229616 36079699 36069808 