[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Mar 8 00:12:10 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 080010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080010 
TXZ000-080115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 080010Z - 080115Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...BUT NEED FOR A WW DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKELY AT THE PRESENT TIME.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG DRY LINE NEAR THE
FORT STOCKTON AREA.  LARGE-SCALE FORCING APPEARS GENERALLY WEAK...
BUT FAVORABLE OROGRAPHY AND WEAKENED INHIBITION IN PEAK HEATING HAVE
APPARENTLY BEEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACTIVITY.  WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR
SO...INHIBITION SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH ONSET OF SURFACE
COOLING.  DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
COULD OFFSET THIS MITIGATING FACTOR...MAINTAINING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME.  HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY
SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED.

..KERR.. 03/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

31140263 31490195 30820130 30350158 30140205 30100251 