[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 072349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072349 
OKZ000-KSZ000-080115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL OK INTO PARTS OF S CNTRL/SE KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 072349Z - 080115Z

TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR A WW.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY LIFTING AWAY FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...WITH BROAD MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  THUS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG/AHEAD OF DRY LINE IN
WARM SECTOR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. 
HOWEVER...NARROW AXIS OF MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXISTS...AND WEAK LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING
IS ONGOING IN WAKE OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 
THIS COULD WEAKEN INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
BY 02-03Z.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE SEEMS TO BE NEAR OR TO THE
SOUTH/EAST OF WICHITA...WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH
MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...BUT PRIMARY RISK SEEMS
TO BE LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 03/07/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

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