[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Mar 7 23:17:10 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 072317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072316 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-080115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN THRU W CNTRL MO/NE KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 072316Z - 080115Z

NEW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING. 
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR BROADER SCALE SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS FOCUSED IN ZONE OF
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION NOW SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST IOWA/NORTHEAST MISSOURI TOWARD WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. 
THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING.

WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...PRIMARY NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SEEMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH...TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...ACROSS AREA NEAR/SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHWEST OF KIRKSVILLE.  BASE OF ACTIVITY MAY LOWER CLOSER TO 850
MB THAN 700 MB...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION. 
HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY GREATER MOST UNSTABLE CAPE...ON THE ORDER OF 1000
J/KG...WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.

MID-LEVEL COOLING IN WAKE OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IMPULSE...AND
ONSET OF INCREASING LOWER MID/TROPOSPHERIC IN CREST OF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS... ARE EVENTUALLY
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BACK TOWARD THE
KANSAS CITY MO/TOPEKA KS AREA. THIS APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
03Z...MORE LIKELY THEREAFTER.

..KERR.. 03/07/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...TOP...

40679336 41109198 40799072 39509062 38929096 38809276
38569432 38629550 38969562 39409570 39699482 40219432 