[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Mar 7 16:49:37 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 071624
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071623 
MOZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-071830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST TUE MAR 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NWRN MO...WRN IA...EXTREME NERN
KS...SERN SD...SWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071623Z - 071830Z

TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z IN NNW-SSE
ORIENTED BAND FROM SERN SD AND SWRN MN SEWD TO W-CENTRAL MO...MOVING
 NEWD 30-40 KT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN IA...NWRN-W-CENTRAL MO AND SWRN
MN.  ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SEVERE LIMITS IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER NEITHER
ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT NOR WW ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. 

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED PARALLEL AND VERY CLOSE TO WARM FRONTAL
ZONE NEAR 700 MB.  ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ROOTED AROUND 700 MB BASED
ON EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.
 PARCELS ISENTROPICALLY RAISED LIFTED TO LFC AND
SATURATION...BENEATH 7.5 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUPPORT
ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-800 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEARS 30-40 KT ARE
EVIDENT WHEN USING ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS CORRESPONDING TO LAYERS
THAT INCLUDE 700 MB LEVEL.  ALTHOUGH VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL IS NOT
LIKELY GIVEN LIMITED BUOYANCY AND MRGL EFFECTIVE SHEAR...RELATIVELY
DRY SUBCONVECTIVE LAYER ATOP COOL/STABLE SFC AIR MASS MAY INHIBIT
SUBCLOUD MELTING AND THUS AID HAIL SURVIVAL TO SFC.

..EDWARDS.. 03/07/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...

37879455 38569477 39999542 42209633 43659719 44029719
44399686 44429623 44379573 44199525 43669464 43139399
41989358 40529309 39129307 38279330 37959423 