[MCD] SWOMCD
Mesoscale Convective Discussions
mcd at goshenarc.org
Thu Jun 15 22:45:16 UTC 2006
ACUS11 KWNS 152243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152243
NEZ000-152345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 152243Z - 152345Z
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEWD INTO DISCUSSION AREA FROM NWRN KS AND A WW IS BEING
CONSIDERED.
AS OF 2230Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES NRN EXTENSION OF
BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS WRN KS OVER RED WILLOW COUNTY NEB WITH
A GENERAL STORM MOTION OF 225/25 KTS. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT AMBIENT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS S-CNTRL NEB HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY MIXED THROUGH 700 MB. MOREOVER...ACCOMPANYING
KINEMATIC PROFILE AND UEX VWP INDICATE MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL.
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS HOW SUBSEQUENT DEEP CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE
OVER CNTRL NEB THIS EVENING GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL CO.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
..MEAD.. 06/15/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...
40400087 40880059 41430016 41909982 41999884 41529833
40849833 40459861 40259952
WWWW
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