[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jun 15 22:45:16 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 152243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152243 
NEZ000-152345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 152243Z - 152345Z

POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEWD INTO DISCUSSION AREA FROM NWRN KS AND A WW IS BEING
CONSIDERED.

AS OF 2230Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES NRN EXTENSION OF
BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS WRN KS OVER RED WILLOW COUNTY NEB WITH
A GENERAL STORM MOTION OF 225/25 KTS.  RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT AMBIENT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS S-CNTRL NEB HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY MIXED THROUGH 700 MB.  MOREOVER...ACCOMPANYING
KINEMATIC PROFILE AND UEX VWP INDICATE MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL.

PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS HOW SUBSEQUENT DEEP CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE
OVER CNTRL NEB THIS EVENING GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL CO. 
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..MEAD.. 06/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

40400087 40880059 41430016 41909982 41999884 41529833
40849833 40459861 40259952 

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